Trump’s Midterm Defeat Weakens His Domestic Power, but Foreign Policy Remains a Risk

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump faces a major political setback after Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections. The results threaten his legislative agenda and are likely to bring closer scrutiny of his administration.

But losing control of Congress does not mean Trump has lost his ability to shape US foreign policy or direct military operations.

As commander-in-chief, he retains considerable authority over the US armed forces. Congress, meanwhile, has significant influence over military funding, legislation and oversight. That leaves Trump with room to act internationally, even as his freedom to pursue domestic priorities becomes more limited.

The election defeat also raises questions about how the president will respond. Trump has rarely backed away from political confrontations, and his administration is already facing mounting pressure over the war with Iran, rising energy costs and the continuing conflict in Ukraine.

There is no clear indication of what he will do next. But foreign policy could become an important way for Trump to project strength at a time when his domestic political position has weakened.

The Iran War

The conflict with Iran remains one of the most pressing challenges facing the Trump administration.

In the weeks leading up to the midterm elections, Washington increased its military presence in the region. Trump's increasingly forceful statements also raised concerns that the United States could become involved in another major confrontation with Tehran.

On November 2, US forces carried out limited strikes against Iranian military targets on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US officials described the operation as defensive, saying it was intended to protect American assets from Iranian threats.

The strikes came as tensions continued to disrupt shipping through the strategic waterway. The restrictions on maritime traffic and the US naval blockade have affected regional trade and energy supplies, adding to economic pressure in the United States and beyond.

Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, had attended a classified briefing on potential military options against Iran before being hospitalised following a stroke on October 31. He later criticised the proposals, warning that renewed military action could trigger a dangerous escalation.

Concerns have also emerged over the possibility of US attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Such operations would raise serious questions under international humanitarian law, which places restrictions on attacks against civilian objects and requires military forces to consider proportionality and potential harm to civilians.

Iran has been closely watching political developments in Washington, particularly as the conflict's economic consequences become increasingly difficult for the Trump administration to ignore.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to higher costs for fuel and other essential commodities, including agricultural inputs. Those increases have added to the cost-of-living pressures facing American households.

Following the election, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf portrayed the results as a rejection of the war by American voters.

In a social media post on November 4, he wrote, “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message."

He also warned Washington against disregarding public opposition to the conflict.

Developments in Israel could further complicate the situation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition failed to secure a parliamentary majority in the October 27 election. He remains in a caretaker position while political leaders work to form a new government.

Netanyahu has repeatedly called for an end to Iran's current political system. Reports have also suggested that he has urged Washington to consider further military action against Tehran.

A prolonged conflict could change Israel's domestic political calculations. Renewed fighting, particularly if Israeli territory came under direct attack, could create pressure for a broader political arrangement. Whether that would lead to a unity government or strengthen Netanyahu's position, however, remains uncertain.

The war in Ukraine

Ukraine presents another major foreign policy challenge for Trump.

Russia's full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022, has continued for more than four years, leaving Ukrainian cities, infrastructure and civilian communities under sustained pressure.

Before the midterm elections, the Trump administration took steps to ease certain restrictions affecting Russian diesel supplies. Its October decisions included waivers allowing some transactions involving Russian-origin diesel, partly in an effort to address pressure on energy markets.

The move has raised concerns among critics who argue that easing restrictions could reduce economic pressure on Moscow while the war continues.

Ukraine, meanwhile, remains dependent on additional air defence support to protect its cities from Russian missile and drone attacks. Kyiv has sought more US-made interceptors, with European countries helping finance some purchases.

The availability of these systems remains a critical issue as Russian attacks continue to threaten civilian areas and essential infrastructure.

The Kremlin has expressed hope that the US election results will not disrupt Trump's efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Trump has repeatedly pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider territorial concessions as part of a possible peace agreement. Kyiv has resisted proposals that would require it to surrender territory occupied by Russian forces.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could make it harder for Trump to pursue policies seen as favourable to Moscow. Democratic lawmakers may push for stronger support for Ukraine and closer scrutiny of any further easing of sanctions against Russia.

Still, a change in congressional control will not automatically reverse the president's foreign policy decisions. The administration retains considerable executive authority, while efforts to restrict its actions could face political and legislative obstacles, including a possible presidential veto.

A president with fewer domestic options

The midterm results mark a turning point for Trump's presidency, but they do not bring an end to his influence over international affairs.

Democrats are due to take control of Congress when the new session begins in January 2027. Until then, Republicans will retain control of the outgoing Congress.

Once Democrats assume control, they are likely to use their oversight powers, influence over federal spending and legislative authority to challenge parts of Trump's agenda.

The administration can expect tougher scrutiny of military spending, its approach to Iran, relations with Russia and continued support for Ukraine.

Predicting Trump's next move remains difficult. His approach to foreign policy has often shifted, particularly when dealing with Iran and Ukraine. He has shown a willingness to change course when political or economic circumstances demand it.

What is clearer is that his domestic position has become more complicated. With Democrats preparing to control both chambers of Congress, advancing his legislative priorities will be considerably harder.

Abroad, however, Trump retains significant presidential powers. That means the election defeat may limit his options in Washington without necessarily reducing his ability to influence events elsewhere.

The question now is whether he will use that remaining authority to pursue diplomatic agreements or adopt a more confrontational approach overseas.

For US allies, adversaries and the wider international community, the consequences could extend far beyond America's domestic political landscape.