Donald Trump faces a familiar political problem: an economy that keeps growing but a public that is still worried about the cost of living.

The issue is somewhat similar to the problems Joe Biden faced in his presidency, where relatively strong economic indicators failed to convince many Americans that their economic situation was improving.

Trump ran for office in 2024 promising to get prices down fast. “If I win I will bring prices down immediately,” he said.

But falling inflation is not the same thing as falling prices. Inflation measures the rate at which prices are rising, but consumers can still feel the sting of high prices even when prices are rising at a slower rate.

That divide is central to Trump’s economic dilemma as the U.S. approaches the November 2026 midterm elections.

The latest figures from the government illustrate the squeeze. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September, and petrol prices surged 9.1% in the month. The September report, released Oct. 14, showed that rising petrol prices were responsible for more than half of the monthly increase in consumer prices.

Meanwhile, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s latest estimate. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September.

The numbers suggest an economy that is still expanding, but they do not necessarily capture how households feel about their own financial situation.

For voters, the more immediate questions are whether groceries, fuel, housing and other essentials are affordable and whether their earnings are keeping up with those costs.

Economic growth hasn’t eased household pressures.

Trump has argued that he inherited economic problems from Biden and has pointed to growth, investment and stock market performance as evidence his policies are working.

White House spokesman Matthew Middleton has credited the administration’s economic agenda to tackling what he called Biden’s inflation crisis. Trump ally and economic commentator Larry Kudlow also has said that the expansion’s strength has not received proper credit.

Headline economic indicators tell only part of the story.

As prices rise faster than wages, households are losing purchasing power. Even with higher pay, consumers may still struggle to afford everything if the cost of essential goods and services goes up.

The September inflation report heightens that concern. Shelter costs also jumped over the month, as did the price of petrol. Such costs can pinch households even when the economy is growing overall.

The political fallout is significant. Voters generally assess an administration’s economic performance based on their experience, not just on GDP numbers or the performance of the stock market.

Tariffs and the Iran conflict add to pressure.

The causes of inflationary pressure have changed since Biden took office.

When Biden took office, the economy was still recovering from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the breakdown of the supply chain and the inflationary surge that followed the initial rebound.

Tariffs and the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran have become additional factors in the economic debate under Trump.

Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, updated in September 2026, found that tariffs imposed by the U.S. in 2025 were a factor in driving up prices for goods. In their sample, the researchers estimated that the tariffs contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods-price inflation by February 2026 compared to a scenario in which the tariffs had not been imposed.

That’s not to be confused with a 2.9% increase in the price of all consumer goods. The estimate is for the contribution of tariffs to price inflation for the categories of goods considered in the study.

Researchers also found that tariffs can affect domestic products, not just imports, because U.S. manufacturers are paying more for imported components and materials.

The Iran conflict has added another dimension of uncertainty. Energy markets are being pressured by tensions and security issues in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping channel. And higher oil prices can be passed on to petrol and transport costs, adding to household expenses.

You have to look at the relative impact of tariffs, disruption in energy markets and other factors on overall inflation on their own merits – not blamed on any one cause.

Political promises versus economics

The White House has cited tax changes, employment and efforts to reduce prescription drug costs as evidence that the administration is working to ease financial burdens.

Trump has also floated the idea of limiting credit card interest rates and, in September, promised a $5,000 payment to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress in November.

The proposed payment is still a political promise, not an established benefit. It would require further decisions on funding, eligibility and implementation, and would face significant obstacles in Congress.

Such proposals are a sign of the pressure on politicians to show voters they are addressing everyday expenses. However, stopgap financial support and economic growth overall do not always address underlying concerns about the cost of housing, food, fuel and borrowing.

For Democrats, it’s reminiscent of Biden’s difficulty in convincing voters that good economic numbers translated into good change in their lives.

The challenge is made more difficult by Trump’s own promise during the campaign to reduce prices, as well as the possible effect on consumers of his administration’s policies.

The mid-term test

As the November elections approach, the question is not simply whether the US economy is expanding. It’s about whether householders think their financial situation is improving.

There can be concerns about affordability even when the economy is growing, unemployment is low and the stock market is strong. Inflation can also slow without undoing price increases that households have already faced.

That gap between the economy and how people feel about it is a political danger for Trump and his fellow Republicans.

Biden struggled to bridge a similar divide in 2024. Whether Trump can do better may depend less on the headline figures alone than on what voters see in their pay packets, monthly bills and day-to-day spending.