While a proposed U.S.-Iran framework agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz might be a step towards reducing tensions in the Gulf, maritime experts say commercial shipping is unlikely to return to normal right away.
One of the world’s most important energy shipping routes would be reopened and broader negotiations on issues including Iran’s nuclear programme would begin under the deal, which is reportedly set to be signed in Switzerland. But industry analysts say there are still big operational and security hurdles.
Maritime risk specialists said the deal marked the start of a de-escalation process, not a full return to normal trading conditions.
The reported presence of naval mines in and around the waterway is one of the most immediate concerns. And before commercial traffic could safely resume, maritime authorities and international observers would probably have to declare shipping lanes free of hazards.
Finding, clearing and certifying safe routes could take several weeks, Reuters cited maritime security sources as saying. Representatives of the shipping industry have also stressed the importance of clearly marked mine-free corridors before vessels can resume normal transits.
Insurance costs remain another big hurdle. The war has driven up war-risk premiums for vessels in the area, hugely increasing costs for shipowners and cargo operators.
Security improvements don't necessarily mean insurers will be quick to cut premiums. Industry analysts say it is the lack of attacks and continued stability over time that gives confidence in the route.
Safe channels could allow hundreds of commercial ships now stuck or delayed in Gulf waters to start moving. Market intelligence companies say large numbers of loaded and empty tankers are waiting to be able to return to normal operations.
The availability of crews can also impact recovery efforts. International maritime organisations have reported seafarer casualties during the conflict and some countries have introduced restrictions or additional checks for personnel going to higher risk areas.
Gulf energy producers will be expected to begin checking their facilities for damage from the conflict. Recovery speed will depend on repairs, availability of workforce, transport logistics and return of export schedules.
Analysts say oil exports should gradually recover, but natural gas exports could be delayed even longer if infrastructure damage is extensive.
But the proposed deal still leaves a number of big open issues. Iran’s nuclear activities, sanctions relief and wider regional security issues are expected to be discussed.
There are also still questions about how the Strait of Hormuz will be governed in the future, not least whether transit will always be toll-free, and what role regional states will have in overseeing maritime access.
Regional tensions could still affect shipping markets. Israeli officials have said it reserves the right to act unilaterally against perceived security threats and analysts say a return to fighting could set back efforts to return to commercial activity.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be an important milestone for shipping companies, insurers and energy markets. But industry experts caution that a return to pre-conflict conditions is more likely to be incremental than instantaneous.
